LOS Table
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Home * Engine Testing * Match Statistics * LOS Table
After a tournament between two engines is over one can deduct the likelihood of superiority [1] of one engine over the other by consulting the following table. The first column gives the score difference (wins - losses), the next columns give the LOS for a certain number of games. The table was calculated for a draw ratio of 32%.
Contents
Table
10 | 50 | 100 | 200 | 500 | 1000 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
1 | 64.51% | 56.77% | 54.81% | 53.41% | 52.16% | 51.53% |
2 | 77.22% | 63.34% | 59.55% | 56.80% | 54.32% | 53.06% |
3 | 86.95% | 69.55% | 64.16% | 60.14% | 56.46% | 54.58% |
4 | 93.43% | 75.24% | 68.57% | 63.40% | 58.58% | 56.09% |
5 | 97.14% | 80.32% | 72.73% | 66.57% | 60.68% | 57.60% |
6 | 98.95% | 84.71% | 76.60% | 69.63% | 62.75% | 59.10% |
7 | 99.68% | 88.40% | 80.14% | 72.55% | 64.78% | 60.58% |
8 | 99.93% | 91.41% | 83.34% | 75.33% | 66.77% | 62.05% |
9 | 99.99% | 93.80% | 86.19% | 77.96% | 68.72% | 63.50% |
10 | 100.00% | 95.64% | 88.69% | 80.41% | 70.61% | 64.93% |
11 | 97.02% | 90.85% | 82.69% | 72.45% | 66.34% | |
12 | 98.01% | 92.68% | 84.80% | 74.23% | 67.73% | |
13 | 98.71% | 94.23% | 86.72% | 75.95% | 69.09% | |
14 | 99.19% | 95.50% | 88.48% | 77.60% | 70.43% | |
15 | 99.50% | 96.54% | 90.06% | 79.19% | 71.74% | |
16 | 99.71% | 97.37% | 91.48% | 80.71% | 73.02% | |
17 | 99.83% | 98.03% | 92.74% | 82.16% | 74.27% | |
18 | 99.91% | 98.55% | 93.85% | 83.54% | 75.49% | |
19 | 99.95% | 98.94% | 94.82% | 84.85% | 76.68% | |
20 | 99.97% | 99.24% | 95.67% | 86.08% | 77.84% | |
21 | 99.99% | 99.46% | 96.41% | 87.25% | 78.96% | |
22 | 99.99% | 99.62% | 97.03% | 88.35% | 80.05% | |
23 | 100.00% | 99.74% | 97.57% | 89.38% | 81.11% | |
24 | 99.82% | 98.02% | 90.34% | 82.12% | ||
25 | 99.88% | 98.40% | 91.23% | 83.11% | ||
26 | 99.92% | 98.71% | 92.07% | 84.06% | ||
27 | 99.95% | 98.97% | 92.84% | 84.97% | ||
28 | 99.97% | 99.18% | 93.55% | 85.85% | ||
29 | 99.98% | 99.36% | 94.21% | 86.69% | ||
30 | 99.99% | 99.50% | 94.81% | 87.50% | ||
31 | 99.99% | 99.61% | 95.36% | 88.27% | ||
32 | 100.00% | 99.70% | 95.86% | 89.01% | ||
33 | 99.77% | 96.32% | 89.71% | |||
34 | 99.82% | 96.74% | 90.38% | |||
35 | 99.87% | 97.11% | 91.02% | |||
36 | 99.90% | 97.45% | 91.62% | |||
37 | 99.93% | 97.76% | 92.20% | |||
38 | 99.95% | 98.03% | 92.74% | |||
39 | 99.96% | 98.28% | 93.26% | |||
40 | 99.97% | 98.50% | 93.74% | |||
41 | 99.98% | 98.69% | 94.20% | |||
42 | 99.98% | 98.86% | 94.63% | |||
43 | 99.99% | 99.02% | 95.04% | |||
44 | 99.99% | 99.15% | 95.42% | |||
45 | 99.99% | 99.27% | 95.78% | |||
46 | 100.00% | 99.37% | 96.11% | |||
47 | 99.46% | 96.42% | ||||
48 | 99.54% | 96.72% | ||||
49 | 99.61% | 96.99% | ||||
50 | 99.67% | 97.24% | ||||
51 | 99.72% | 97.47% | ||||
52 | 99.76% | 97.69% | ||||
53 | 99.80% | 97.89% | ||||
54 | 99.83% | 98.08% | ||||
55 | 99.86% | 98.25% | ||||
56 | 99.88% | 98.41% | ||||
57 | 99.90% | 98.56% | ||||
58 | 99.92% | 98.69% | ||||
59 | 99.93% | 98.82% | ||||
60 | 99.94% | 98.93% | ||||
61 | 99.95% | 99.03% | ||||
62 | 99.96% | 99.13% | ||||
63 | 99.97% | 99.22% | ||||
64 | 99.97% | 99.29% | ||||
65 | 99.98% | 99.37% | ||||
66 | 99.98% | 99.43% | ||||
67 | 99.99% | 99.49% | ||||
68 | 99.99% | 99.54% | ||||
69 | 99.99% | 99.59% | ||||
70 | 99.99% | 99.64% | ||||
71 | 99.99% | 99.68% | ||||
72 | 100.00% | 99.71% | ||||
73 | 99.74% | |||||
74 | 99.77% | |||||
75 | 99.80% | |||||
76 | 99.82% | |||||
77 | 99.84% | |||||
78 | 99.86% | |||||
79 | 99.88% | |||||
80 | 99.89% | |||||
81 | 99.91% | |||||
82 | 99.92% | |||||
83 | 99.93% | |||||
84 | 99.94% | |||||
85 | 99.94% | |||||
86 | 99.95% | |||||
87 | 99.96% | |||||
88 | 99.96% | |||||
89 | 99.97% | |||||
90 | 99.97% | |||||
91 | 99.98% | |||||
92 | 99.98% | |||||
93 | 99.98% | |||||
94 | 99.98% | |||||
95 | 99.99% | |||||
96 | 99.99% | |||||
97 | 99.99% | |||||
98 | 99.99% | |||||
99 | 99.99% | |||||
100 | 99.99% | |||||
101 | 99.99% | |||||
102 | 100.00% |
Forum Posts
- Likelihood of superiority by Marco Costalba, CCC, November 15, 2009
- LOS calculation: Does the same result is always the same? by Marco Costalba, CCC, October 01, 2012
- LOS (again) by Ed Schröder, CCC, October 30, 2012
- Fast LOS estimation by Gary, CCC, February 18, 2013
- LOS by BB+, OpenChess Forum, March 31, 2013
- Type I error in LOS based early stopping rule by Kai Laskos, CCC, August 06, 2013 [2]
External Links
References
- ↑ Likelihood of superiority by Marco Costalba, CCC, November 15, 2009
- ↑ Type I and type II errors from Wikipedia